Post-election

Now seasoned by reading various pieces, I have come to my understanding of this debacle.

First, I think Joe Biden bears a large degree of blame.  He should not have run for a second term.  When he did drop out, he didn't leave enough time for Kamala to separate herself.  And second, she didn't cleave from the administration in sufficiently stronger terms.  But I thought she ran a nearly flawless campaign with the time she had.  And, the sad truth is that the electorate is incapable of electing a female at this point.

But this election was bigger than that.  It has shown that Trump is a unique person in the american historical landscape.  History will not judge either him or the electorate kindly.  But I agree with others, this is the beginning of the eventual collapse of the American Empire.  The state has been rotting  from within for some time and this is the final disease that will cause the collapse.  Maybe not within 4 years, but soon.

And again, this election showed a rightward march across the country.  I believe this is a worldwide trend and the U.S. was not immune.  But the urban-rural divide is so stark it's hard to see how to reconcile these two differing viewpoints (see "rot" above).

Many have remarked that the Democratic message is too "woke".  Like it or not, the commercial that concluded "She's for they/them not us" was very effective.

I fully expect this administration to be as chaotic as the previous one, but with more effectiveness (and ruthlessness).  I anticipate the DoJ will charge Biden with some invented crime.

A few predictions:

I expect that the new administration will rapidly introduce rules into the federal budget prohibiting DEI in contracts.  And universities will have to comply if they want federal funding.

Ukraine will be settled by granting Putin what he has now. It's not the whole meal he anticipated, but it's enough to satisfy his government. He can bide his time until he wants the rest.  Right now, he can't invade anything since the Ukrainians have significantly degraded his military.

This will signal to the Chinese that it's OK to take Taiwan.  The US won't do anything about it.

It's unlikely but possible that North Korea could try and invade the south.  They have the largest  standing army in the world.  And because they have nukes, they could tell the US to bug off. Additionally, they have Putin in their corner.  And he owes them.

And I expect the US to withdraw from NATO.  If Putin's your friend, then why fight against him? Europe is his sphere of influence, right?

Climate-wise, it's a disaster.  As with the previous administration, drilling will commence anywhere and everywhere.  The only silver lining is that Elon will convince the administration that electric cars are OK.